Updated on 2024/10/23

写真a

 
ARAI Kiichiro
 
Organization
Faculty of Policy Studies Professor
Other responsible organization
Policy Studies Course of Graduate School of Policy Studies, Master's Program
Policy Studies Course of Graduate School of Policy Studies, Doctoral Program
Contact information
The inquiry by e-mail is 《here
Profile

専門分野
政治過程論、実験政治学、計量政治学
学歴
1996-1999 私立栄光学園高等学校
2000-2004 中央大学総合政策学部政策科学科 学士(総合政策)
2004-2006 早稲田大学大学院政治学研究科修士課程 修士(政治学)
2006-2009 早稲田大学大学院政治学研究科博士後期課程
2010年5月 博士(政治学)取得
博士論文題目「参加のメカニズム-民主主義に適応する市民の動態-」
主査 河野勝早稲田大学教授
副査 田中愛治早稲田大学教授、スティーブン R.リード中央大学教授

External link

Degree

  • Ph.D. ( Waseda University )

  • Master ( Waseda University )

Education

  • 2009.3
     

    Waseda University   Graduate School, Division of Politics   doctor course   finished without a degree after completion of required course credits

  • 2006.3
     

    Waseda University   Graduate School, Division of Politics   master course   completed

  • 2004.3
     

    Chuo University   Faculty of General Policy   others   graduated

Research History

  • 2022.4 - Now

    Chuo University   Faculty of Policy Studies   Professor

  • 2020.4 - 2022.4

    Chuo University   Faculty of Policy Studies   Associate Professor

  • 2019.4 - 2020.3

    Tokyo Metropolitan University   Faculty of Law   Professor

  • 2018.4 - 2019.3

    Tokyo Metropolitan University   Faculty of Law   Associate Professor

  • 2014.4 - 2018.3

    Tokyo Metropolitan University   Faculty of Urban Liberal Arts   Associate Professor

  • 2012.4 - 2014.3

    Waseda University   Faculty of Political Science and Economics   Assistant Professor

  • 2009.4 - 2012.3

    Chuo University   Faculty of Policy Studies   Specially Appointed Assistant Professor

  • 2007.4 - 2008.3

    日本学術振興会   特別研究員(DC2・21COE)

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Professional Memberships

  • International Society of Political Psychology

  • THE BEHAVIORMETRIC SOCIETY OF JAPAN

  • Midwest Political Science Association

  • American Political Science Association

  • 日本社会心理学会

  • 日本政治学会

  • International Political Science Association

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Research Interests

  • 政治経済学

  • 政治学

  • 政治行動論

  • 政治過程論

  • 実験政治学

Research Areas

  • Humanities & Social Sciences / Politics

Papers

  • 日常生活での非政治的意思決定に与える政治的要因の効果 : 会話相手の選択に関するコンジョイント分析 Reviewed

    横山智哉, 荒井紀一郎

    ノモス   ( 54 )   69 - 87   2024.6

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (bulletin of university, research institution)  

    DOI: 10.32286/0002001719

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  • データで見る「夜の街」の縮減

    荒井紀一郎

    VOICE   531 ( 531 )   156 - 165   2022.2

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    Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

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  • "民意"の測り方—特集 "民意"の測り方

    荒井 紀一郎

    中央評論   73 ( 2 )   12 - 16   2021

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

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  • Do boundary consolidations alter the relationship between politicians and voters? The case of municipal mergers in Japan Reviewed International journal

    Kyohei Yamada, Kiichiro Arai

    Local Government Studies   47 ( 4 )   519 - 545   2021

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD  

    This paper examines whether boundary changes lead to changes in the relationship between voters and politicians. We focus on the wave of municipal mergers in Japan that took place in the 2000s in order to examine this question. Municipalities with small population size, once they merge with their larger neighbours, would have a small number of voters relative to the size of the electorate in the post-merger municipalities. Therefore, municipal politicians in the post-merger municipalities do not have strong electoral incentives to receive support from geographic areas corresponding with pre-merger municipalities of small population size. Using a survey of voters in 89 locations corresponding with pre-merger municipalities, we demonstrate that voters who live in small municipalities that experienced mergers interact with politicians less frequently and have less favourable impressions of politicians than before the mergers. These patterns are not observed in municipalities that did not experience mergers.

    DOI: 10.1080/03003930.2020.1761335

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  • Competition and Representation : Synchronization of Two Democratic Processes Invited

    Masaru Kohno and Kiichiro Arai

    35 ( 2 )   5 - 18   2019

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    Language:Japanese   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)  

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  • Survey of candidates' policy preferences

    Kiichiro Arai, Miwa Nakajo

    Japan Decides 2017: The Japanese General Election   149 - 163   2018.5

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    Publishing type:Part of collection (book)  

    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-76475-7_9

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  • What can we learn from "response time"?

    Kiichiro Arai, Norihiro Mimura

    Electoral Survey Methodology: Insight from Japan on Using Computer Assisted Personal Interviews   86 - 108   2016.3

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    Publishing type:Part of collection (book)  

    DOI: 10.4324/9781315624211

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  • EXAMINING THE EFFECT OF PROVIDING A PEN ON THE RESPONSE RATE TO A MAIL SURVEY Reviewed

    Kiichiro Arai, Kyohei Yamada

    Behaviormetrika   43 ( 2 )   83 - 101   2016

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:The Behaviormetric Society of Japan  

    <p> We report the results of a randomized experiment conducted in Japan as part of a mail survey of voters. In this experiment, we examined whether or not inserting a pen in the questionnaire would improve the response rate. We employed a two-by-two treatment in which we varied the price of the pen (high-priced or low-priced) and whether or not the pen was inserted in a paper-made box. We found that providing a pen increased the response rate by more than nine percentage points. We also found that a low-priced pen inserted in a box was more effective than other condisions. However, the effect of the high-priced pen was not statistically distinguishable from that of the low-priced one. </p>

    DOI: 10.2333/bhmk.43.83

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  • Measuring Agenda-setting Effects of Japanese Newspapers on Public Opinion Invited

    ARAI Kiichiro

    The Annuals of Japanese Political Science Association   65 ( 1 )   1_104 - 1_122   2014

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:JAPANESE POLITICAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION  

    This paper aims to measure agenda-setting effects of Japanese Newspapers on public opinion. The rise of the internet and social media caused a controversy over the influence of traditional news media on public opinion. Some researchers argue that social media reduced the influence of traditional news media, such as TV and newspaper, on the people. Other researchers argue, however, that TV and newspaper remain crucial to public opinion formation. This paper analyzes a panel survey which was conducted on frequent internet user to figure out agenda-setting effects of Japanese newspapers. The results suggest that Japanese newspapers still exert agenda-setting effects on public opinion. On the other hand, the results also show that watching TV news and using internet weaken the influence of newspapers on public opinion.

    DOI: 10.7218/nenpouseijigaku.65.1_104

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  • 日本人はどの程度武力行使に前向きなのか? : 尖閣諸島有事シミュレーションを用いた選択実験 (特集 外交と世論) Invited

    荒井 紀一郎, 泉川 泰博

    レヴァイアサン   ( 54 )   28 - 47   2014

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:木鐸社  

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  • How did the Japanese Public React to Kim Jong Il's Death? Reviewed

    Kiichiro Arai, Masaru Kohno, Shin Toyoda

    INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC   13 ( 1 )   125 - 153   2013.1

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    Language:English   Publishing type:Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher:OXFORD UNIV PRESS  

    We present a comprehensive evidence on how the Japanese reacted to the sudden death of North Korea's Kim Jong Il in December 2011, which was an event of enormous significance for Japan's national security. Based on our original, partially panel-structured, multi-wave monthly surveys conducted from December 2011 to March 2012, we analyze how the Japanese learned about his death, how they formed evaluations about its implication, and how their perceptions changed over time. Our findings illustrate that Japan's general public reacted in a remarkably calm and balanced way to the evolving situation, pointing to a basic sense of realism that underlies their attitudinal orientation toward North Korea. This sense, we argue, derives from the confidence widely held in Japan that, while North Korea remains one of the crucial sources of external threats, its overall ability to influence the regional and international dynamics is limited and its threat thus containable within current framework of national security.

    DOI: 10.1093/irap/lcs012

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  • Retrospective Voting under Divided Parliaments Invited

    IMAI Ryosuke, ARAI Kiichiro

    Japanese Journal of Electoral Studies   29 ( 1 )   87 - 101   2013

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:Japanese Association of Electoral Studies  

    A number of studies have suggested that divided parliaments makes it difficult for voters to attribute primary responsibility for their economic conditions and policy outcomes to the government. This study examines the connections between voter's attitudes about divided parliaments and their voting behavior using WEB survey data which we conducted before and after 2012 general election in Japan. Our findings show that 1) voters who support a unicameral assembly or recognize the vital importance of the Diet tend to see the divided parliaments as a problem, 2) performance evaluations of each DPJ Cabinets are strongly influenced by voter's assessment for Hatoyama Cabinet's performance of U.S. military bases in Okinawa, Kan Cabinet's performance of Nuclear accident in Fukushima, and Noda Cabinet's performance of tax system reform, 3) retrospective voting is not observed among voters who see the divided parliaments as a problem.

    DOI: 10.14854/jaes.29.1_87

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  • 実験で比較する経済と政治--「勝ち馬に乗る」合理性をめぐって (特集 《再考》政治・経済)

    荒井 紀一郎, 村上 剛, 河野 勝

    経済セミナー   ( 661 )   55 - 61   2011.8

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:日本評論社  

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  • Attitude Stability affected by Political Sophistication Reviewed

    YAMAZAKI Arata, ARAI Kiichiro

    Japanese Journal of Electoral Studies   27 ( 1 )   120 - 134   2011

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:Japanese Association of Electoral Studies  

    Political sophistication (PS) is key concept for explaining political attitudes and voting behavior. The standard approach for measuring PS is to combine several question items from survey data to generate an index. In this process, much information is lost, obscuring the interpretation of PS. In this paper, we expressly evaluate the questions items used to measure political sophistication by employing item response theory. We test the new index by examining its effect on the stability of political attitudes. The results suggest that higher PS produces higher stability of ideological position and in the sense of duty of voting participation. However, higher PS produces greater instability in the level of political efficacy.

    DOI: 10.14854/jaes.27.1_120

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  • Adaptive or rational?: two mechanisms of voter turnout

    Arai Kiichiro

    Journal of policy & culture   ( 0 )   295 - 307   2009.3

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:Chuo University  

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  • Simulation models in political science

    荒井 紀一郎

    The Waseda study of politics and public law   ( 88 )   11 - 21   2008

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:早稲田大学大学院政治学研究科  

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  • A mechanism of political participation: experience and evaluation Reviewed

    荒井 紀一郎

    Review of electoral studies   ( 6 )   5 - 24   2006

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    Language:Japanese   Publisher:日本選挙学会  

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Books

  • 基礎ゼミ 政治学

    荒井紀一郎( Role: Contributor第7章 だれが、なぜ、政治に参加するのか? 投票行動と政治参加)

    世界思想社  2019.4  ( ISBN:9784790717249

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    Language:Japanese   Book type:Textbook, survey, introduction

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  • Japan decides 2017 : the Japanese general election

    Pekkanen Robert( Role: ContributorCh9 Survey of Candidates’ Policy Preferences)

    Palgrave Macmillan  2018  ( ISBN:9783319764740

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    Total pages:351   Responsible for pages:149-163   Language:English   Book type:Scholarly book

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  • 日本の夜の公共圏:スナック研究序説

    谷口 功一, スナック研究会, 編, 谷口 功一, スナック研究会( Role: Contributor第8章「スナックの立地と機能―『夜の公共圏』vs.『昼の公共圏』)

    白水社  2017.6  ( ISBN:4560095477

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    Total pages:220   Language:Japanese   Book type:General book, introductory book for general audience

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  • 実験政治学 (フロンティア実験社会科学)

    肥前 洋一( Role: Contributor第5章、第6章)

    勁草書房  2016.9  ( ISBN:4326349131

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    Total pages:204   Language:Japanese   Book type:Scholarly book

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  • Electoral Survey Methodology: Insight from Japan on using computer assisted personal interviews (Routledge-WIAS Interdisciplinary Studies)

    Kiichiro Arai, Norihiro Mimura, Masaru Kohno, Yoshitaka Nishizawa( Role: ContributorCh.6 What can We Learn from "response time"?)

    Routledge  2016.4  ( ISBN:0415859379

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    Total pages:184   Language:English   Book type:Scholarly book

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  • 参加のメカニズム―民主主義に適応する市民の動態

    荒井 紀一郎( Role: Sole author)

    木鐸社  2014.3  ( ISBN:4833224682

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    Total pages:184   Language:Japanese   Book type:Scholarly book

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  • 参加のメカニズム : 民主主義に適応する市民の動態

    荒井, 紀一郎

    木鐸社  2014  ( ISBN:9784833224680

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    Total pages:184p   Language:Japanese  

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  • 新しい政治経済学の胎動: 社会科学の知の再編へ

    田中 愛治, 河野 勝( Role: Contributor第5章)

    勁草書房  2013.7  ( ISBN:4326302208

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    Total pages:209  

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  • 世論調査の新しい地平: CASI方式世論調査

    田中愛治, 日野愛郎, 編著, 田中 愛治, 日野 愛郎( Role: Contributor第4章 第12章)

    勁草書房  2013.7  ( ISBN:4326302194

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    Total pages:327  

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  • Introducing the faculty of policy studies : integrating policy and culture

    ( Role: ContributorJump on the Bandwagon: Evidence from Survey Experiments (pp311-320))

    2010  ( ISBN:9784990541705

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    Language:English  

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  • 社会科学の実験アプローチ

    河野 勝, 西條 辰義( Role: Sole translator ,  Original_author: 河野 勝 編著 ,  第5章「信念体系、経済機会と不平等:コロンビアにおける実験」 pp.115-137.)

    勁草書房  2007.10  ( ISBN:4326502924

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    Total pages:223  

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Presentations

  • 政治知識と党派性が陰謀論的思考に及ぼす効果

    岩渕 功, 荒井 紀一郎

    日本社会心理学会 第65回大会  2024.8 

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    Event date: 2024.8 - 2024.9

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Poster presentation  

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  • A Little Knowledge Can Lead to Polarization: The Consequence of Misunderstanding Payoff Structure

    2023.9 

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    Event date: 2023.9    

    Language:English   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

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  • 会話相手の選択に与える政治的選好の効果: 日常生活での意思決定を対象としたコンジョイント実験による検証

    横山智哉, 荒井紀一郎

    日本社会心理学会第64回大会  2023.9 

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    Event date: 2023.9    

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  • Reducing Polarization by Observing Others’ Actions: Laboratory Experiments

    Asako,Y, Hino, A, Arai, K, Morikawa, S

    80th Annual Midwest Political Science Association Conference  2023.4 

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    Event date: 2023.4    

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  • How polarization can be reduced: Implications from laboratory experiments

    2022.5 

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    Event date: 2022.5    

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  • Do Flat Organizations Work Differently from Hierarchical Ones? Evidence from Laboratory Experiments on Public Sector Organizational Reforms in Japan.

    Kawai, Koichi, Morikawa, So, Arai, Kiichiro, Onishi, Yutaka

    IPSA 26th World Congress of Political Science  2021.7 

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    Event date: 2021.7    

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  • 最適配置は可能か?: パーソナリティとパフォーマンス

    荒井紀一郎

    2020年度 日本政治学会研究大会  2020.9 

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    Event date: 2020.9    

    Language:Japanese   Presentation type:Oral presentation (general)  

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  • How to Make Hawkish Voters: The Japanese Case

    Kiichiro Arai

    2019 APSA Annual Meeting & Exhibition  2019.8 

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  • Voters’ Preferences over Local Leaders after Natural Disasters

    Nakajo, Miwa, Kobayashi, Yoshiharu, and Kiichiro Arai

    2019 the MPSA Annual Conference  2019.4 

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  • 自然災害がもたらす有権者-政治家関係の変化

    荒井紀一郎・小林義治・中條美和

    2018年度日本政治学会大会  2018.10 

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  • 政治家の選好ははかれるか?

    荒井紀一郎

    日本行動計量学会第46回大会  2018.9 

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  • Did They Cheat on Candidates Surveys?

    Kiichiro Arai

    Harvard Symposium on Japanese Politics  2018.8 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Symposium, workshop panel (public)  

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  • Do Boundary Consolidations Alter the Relationship between Politicians and Voters? Evidence from Municipal Mergers in Japan

    Yamada, Kyohei and Kiichiro Arai

    2017 the MPSA Annual Conference  2017.4 

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  • 自然災害がもたらす市民と地域社会の変容

    荒井紀一郎・中條美和・小林義治・Park Jee-Kwang

    日本行動計量学会第44回大会  2016.8 

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  • Do Boundary Consolidations Alter the Relationship between Politicians and Voters? Evidence from a List Experiment in Japan International conference

    Kiichiro Arai, Kyohei Yamada

    2016 MPSA Annual Conference  2016.4 

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  • 政党システムの変容と政策対立軸の変化

    今井亮佑, 荒井紀一郎, 日野愛郎

    2015年度日本政治学会  2015.10 

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  • How Pacifist Are They Really? Experimental Studies of the Japanese Public's Attitude toward Use of Force Concerning the Sino-Japanese Territorial Dispute International conference

    Yasuhiro Izumikawa, Kiichiro Arai

    2013 APSA Annual Meeting & Exhibition  2013.8 

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  • Jump on the bandwagon, if it has a momentum:A momentum effect in voting behavior International conference

    Go Murakami, Kiichiro Arai, Masaru Kohno

    the MPSA Annual Conference  2012.4 

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  • 争点の種類と争点投票-対立軸の認知が生み出す投票行動のパターン-

    荒井紀一郎

    2010年度日本選挙学会  2010.5 

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  • 政治的知覚(Political Awareness)の再考

    荒井紀一郎, 山崎 新

    2009年度日本政治学会  2009.10 

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  • Switching voters' identities: Effect of conflict between a party and social identity on voting. International conference

    Kiichiro Arai, Norihiro Mimura, Go Murakami

    the 2009 Canadian Political Science Association annual conference  2009.5 

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  • Experimenting Landslide: An Analysis of Preference, Knowledge and Decisions to Bandwagon with a Winning Majority Invited International conference

    Masaru Kohno, Kiichiro Arai

    Hoover Collective Choice Seminar  2008.11 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Public lecture, seminar, tutorial, course, or other speech  

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  • 選挙分析とマルチエージェントシミュレーション・モデル

    荒井紀一郎

    2008年度日本政治学会  2008.10 

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  • 有権者の2つの顔、『会社員』と『党派人』-複数の帰属意識間の葛藤がもたらす政治行動への影響-

    荒井紀一郎, 村上剛

    2008年度日本選挙学会  2008.5 

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  • Switching Voters’Identities: The Effect of Conflict between Party Identification and Social Identity on Political Behavior International conference

    Kiichiro Arai, Go Murakami

    GLOPE-TCER Joint Junior Workshop on Political Economy  2008.2 

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  • 有権者の2つの顔:会社員と党派人

    荒井紀一郎, 村上剛, 三村憲弘

    第11回実験社会科学コンファランス  2007.10 

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  • Mechanism of Habitual Voting: Simulation Model of Voter's Turnout International conference

    Kiichiro Arai

    GLOPE-CREED Workshop New Directions in Political-Economic Behavioral Research :Experiments, Social Research, Simulation  2007.10 

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  • At the Nexus of Competition and Representation: Exploring Interaction between Elites’ Outside Lobbying and Voters’ Sense of Efficacy in Japan International conference

    Kiichiro Arai, Masaru Kohno

    Modeling Power Relationships in Japanese Democracy  2007.8 

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    Language:English   Presentation type:Symposium, workshop panel (nominated)  

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  • 適応的な市民の政治参加メカニズム

    荒井紀一郎

    2007年度日本選挙学会  2007.5 

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Awards

  • 2011年度日本選挙学会賞優秀論文

    2012.5   日本選挙学会   政治的洗練性が規定する態度の安定性

    山崎新, 荒井紀一郎

  • 2010年度日本選挙学会賞優秀ポスター

    2011.5   日本選挙学会   争点の種類と争点投票-対立軸の認知が生み出す投票行動のパターン-

    荒井紀一郎

Research Projects

  • 組織の行動行政学:構造、タスク、構成員がパフォーマンスに与える効果の官民比較実験

    Grant number:21H00679  2021.4 - 2024.3

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(B)  基盤研究(B)  中央大学

    荒井 紀一郎

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    Grant amount: \15990000 ( Direct Cost: \12300000 、 Indirect Cost: \3690000 )

    本研究の目的は、行政組織のパフォーマンスが向上する条件とそのメカニズムについて、組織構造、タスク、そして構成員間におけるコミュニケーションに着目して解明することにある。研究期間初年度である2021年度は、実験デザインの設計と設計の妥当性を確認するための学生を被験者としたプレ実験を実施することを計画していた。しかしながら、covid-19による移動制限や実験施設の利用制限の影響を受け、チームが所属する各機関で学生を被験者とした実験を実施することは極めて難しくなり、インターネットを活用して実際の公務員を対象とした実験を実施することとした。
    この実験では、インターネットを介して公務員をフラット型組織と階層型組織とに無作為に割り当て、さらに各組織内における役割(課長、係長、係員)についても無作為に割り当てた上で、一定の予算制約の下で取り組むべき事業の優先順位をつけるというタスクを課してそのパフォーマンスを測定した。実験の結果、階層型組織の係員はフラット型組織の係員よりも多くの事業について優先順位を高くつける傾向にあり、その分、中間管理職である係長が絞り込んだ上で課長に案をあげていることが明らかになった。最終的なパフォーマンス自体についてはフラット型組織と階層型組織との間に大きな差は生まれないものの、上述の理由からフラット型組織のトップである課長の負担は階層型組織の課長の負担よりも大きくなっていることが示された。これらの結果の一部は、世界政治学会(International Political Science Association)のWorld Congressにて報告された。

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  • A study on political polarization

    Grant number:20H00066  2020.4 - 2024.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)  Waseda University

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    Grant amount: \36920000 ( Direct Cost: \28400000 、 Indirect Cost: \8520000 )

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  • 選挙ガバナンスが正確な投票(CorrectVoting)に与える影響に関する研究

    Grant number:19H00582  2019.4 - 2023.3

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(A)  基盤研究(A)  神戸大学

    大西 裕, 品田 裕, 秦 正樹, 堤 英敬, 藤村 直史, 高橋 百合子, 川中 豪, 飯田 健, 小林 哲郎, SONG JAEHYUN, 荒井 紀一郎

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    Grant amount: \44980000 ( Direct Cost: \34600000 、 Indirect Cost: \10380000 )

    本研究は、選挙ガバナンスが「正確な投票(correct voting)」に如何なる影響を与えているのかを明らかにすることを目的とする。本研究は、選挙ガバナンスのうち近年世界的に進展している積極的投票権保障が、選挙において有権者の選好に最も近似する政党に投票することを意味する「正確な投票」に影響を与える条件とメカニズムを、実験およびサーベイ調査を用いて解明する。条件は多国間比較で、メカニズムは日本を事例に明らかにする。すなわち、積極的投票権保障のうち、本研究では、投票環境の改善(A)、情報アクセス改善(B)と、有権者教育(C)を対象とする。後者では、ABCの3要素がどのように正確な投票に影響するのかを日本を対象に明らかにする。前者では、党派的キューの有効性の差異がこれら3要素の投票行動への作用に違いをもたらすのかを、党派的キューの有効性に多様性が生じる多国間比較で明らかにする。研究成果は国内外の学会および海外の主要査読誌で報告し、得られた知見の国際的な有用性を主張する。
    令和1年度は、第1に、海外で提唱された概念である「正確な投票」が、日本においても同じ文脈・意味で理解可能かを明らかにするため、Lau &Redlawsk (2006)が実施した実験室実験を修正して行った。第2に、選挙ガバナンスが「正確な投票」に与える影響について、情報環境に注目した実証分析を行う準備段階として、参議院選挙を対象にインターネットを用いたプレテストを行った。第3に、有権者教育について、18歳選挙権導入に伴う主権者教育を対象として関係者へのリアリングを行うための準備作業を行った。第4に、多国間比較の第1段階で、日本、韓国、フィリピン、メキシコとの4カ国比較を行うために、党派的キューの有効性の違いに注目しつつ現地調査のための、現地選管からの協力関係を形成した。

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  • A study of administrative organization through an experimental approach

    Grant number:18K18558  2018.6 - 2021.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Challenging Research (Exploratory)  Challenging Research (Exploratory)  Kobe University

    Onishi Yutaka

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    Grant amount: \6370000 ( Direct Cost: \4900000 、 Indirect Cost: \1470000 )

    The purpose of this study is to explain the consequences of the organizational reform in public sector using an experimental approach. The case of reform of administrative organizations targeted in this study is the flat organizational structure, an effort to simplify the organizational hierarchy that has been introduced by local governments since the 2000s to eliminate unnecessary middle managers and speed up organizational decision making, but there is controversy over the effectiveness of this approach. Laboratory experiments conducted with university students and civil servants revealed that there was no difference in organizational performance in the flat type compared to the traditional hierarchical type, but that this was due to supervisors taking on more of the burden, and that there was a relationship between the personalities of the members and performance.

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  • Mechanisms of Political Values Formation: Exploring the Conditions of Inhibiting Inter-group Conflicts

    Grant number:18K12705  2018.4 - 2021.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists  Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists  Tokyo Metropolitan University

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    Grant amount: \4160000 ( Direct Cost: \3200000 、 Indirect Cost: \960000 )

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  • A Study on the Mental Foundation and Evolving Legal Norm regarding Hate Speech in Japan

    Grant number:17KT0005  2017.7 - 2021.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Doshisha University

    Nishizawa Yoshitaka

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    Grant amount: \15600000 ( Direct Cost: \12000000 、 Indirect Cost: \3600000 )

    This project empirically investigated the mental foundations and evolving legal norms regarding hate speech in Japan. It aimed to provide scientific evidence in discussing the future development of Hate Speech Prevention Law, formally titled “Act on the Promotion of Efforts to Eliminate Unfair Discriminatory Speech and Behavior against Persons Originating from Outside Japan.” More specifically, the project addressed, using survey experiments, some concrete questions, such as, under what conditions the Japanese allow discriminatory actions and violent languages, and when they do so for what reasons.

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  • 自然災害を克服するコミュニティの構築:市民と地域を結ぶ政治心理的基盤の探求

    2018.4 - 2019.3

    公益財団法人 野村財団  2018年度社会科学助成 

    中條美和・小林義治

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    Authorship:Principal investigator 

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  • Two-party System and Political Spectrum in Japan: Transformation of Voter-Party Relationship

    Grant number:24330045  2012.4 - 2015.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Chuo University

    REED Steven R., HINO Airo, ARAI Kiichiro

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    Authorship:Collaborating Investigator(s) (not designated on Grant-in-Aid)  Grant type:Competitive

    Grant amount: \16510000 ( Direct Cost: \12700000 、 Indirect Cost: \3810000 )

    The main purposes of this research project are 1) to reveal the policy preference of Japanese voters and candidates, and 2) to create a new political spectrum among voters. To achieve our goals, we conducted focus group interviews, web-based surveys, and web-based experiments in 2012 general election and 2013 House of Councilors election. The analysis provides the following results. Firstly, Today’s Japanese voters are classified into 5 groups. Voters who belong the largest group (about 27% of Japanese voters) prefer the restart of nuclear power stations, Japan’s participation in TPP, and expanding public works. Secondly, Ideologies such as “Liberals-Conservatives” or “Big government-Small government” have relatively few effect on the classification of voters.

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  • A Study of Japanese Preference Formation in Foreign Policy

    Grant number:23243030  2011.4 - 2014.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)  Waseda University

    KOHNO Masaru, NISHIZAWA Yoshitaka, IIDA Keisuke, ARAI Kiichiro, IIDA Takeshi, IZUMIKAWA Yashuhiro, IMAI Ryosuke, UEKI Chikako, KURIYAMA Koichi, KOJO Yoshiko, SAKAIYA Shiro, NAKANISHI Hiroshi

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    Grant amount: \45240000 ( Direct Cost: \34800000 、 Indirect Cost: \10440000 )

    This study, in an attempt to explore the mechanism through which people's attitudes toward foreign relations are formed in Japan, engaged in a series of monthly public opinion survey through web from October 2011 to September 2013, a type of survey that had never been conducted in Japan. Aggregate results of the survey from each month, together with a brief summary and commentary, were made available to the public promptly at the homepage of a research institute headed by the principal investigator. Some of the research results, especially the analyses of short-term changes of public opinion over important issues which attracted wide attention during the period of our investigation, such as TPP, leadership change in North Korea, and Senkaku/Takeshima incidents, have already been publicized in scholarly journals and presented at academic conferences and seminars in Japan and elsewhere.

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  • Political Institutions to Overcome Social Dilemmas

    Grant number:23730147  2011 - 2013

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)  Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B) 

    ARAI Kiichiro

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    Authorship:Principal investigator  Grant type:Competitive

    Grant amount: \4290000 ( Direct Cost: \3300000 、 Indirect Cost: \990000 )

    The purpose of this study is to elucidate the mechanisms that voters and other political actors overcome social dilemmas and form a majority under the democratic system. To this end, I conducted laboratory experiments, survey experiments on the Internet, and national mail survey experiments. These experiments suggest that citizens who act based on their policy preferences and experience the consecutive wins in elections, tend to increase their party identification. They also tend to enhance their satisfaction with the democratic political system and to become habitual participants in political activities.

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  • A Study on Political Institutions

    Grant number:19046001  2007 - 2012

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Priority Areas  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Priority Areas  Hokkaido University

    HIZEN Yoichi, FUNAKI Yukihiko, KOHNO Masaru, TANIGUCHI Naoko, SAKAIYA Shiro, ARAI Kiichiro, KAMIJO Yoshio, IDE Hiroko

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    Authorship:Collaborating Investigator(s) (not designated on Grant-in-Aid)  Grant type:Competitive

    Grant amount: \31900000 ( Direct Cost: \31900000 )

    We had a contribution to the development of experimental research in political science in order to establish experimental social sciences, which is the main theme of our scientific research on priority area. We tackled a research question “how can democracies work well?” through laboratory, fMRI and survey experiments. We also published papers and books and held sessions on the effectiveness of experimental methods in political science.

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  • Globalization and Domestic Politics : A Comprehensive Analysis based on Survey Research on Citizens and Policy Actors

    Grant number:20243009  2008 - 2011

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)  Waseda University

    KUME Ikuo, KOJO Yoshiko, NISHIZAWA Yoshitaka, KOHNO Masaru, TATEBAYASHI Masahiko, SOGA Kengo, KAGE Rieko, FUJIMURA Naofumi, ARAI Kiichiro, KUNO Arata, NAOI Megumi

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    Authorship:Collaborating Investigator(s) (not designated on Grant-in-Aid)  Grant type:Competitive

    Grant amount: \42640000 ( Direct Cost: \32800000 、 Indirect Cost: \9840000 )

    This research tries to explore how domestic political reactions are fostered to the increasing economic and financial globalization focusing on general public and the political and economic actors, and finds several factors influencing their attitudes toward globalization.

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  • A mechanism for forming majority and a change of government

    Grant number:21830113  2009 - 2010

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up  Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up  Chuo University

    ARAI Kiichiro

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    Authorship:Principal investigator  Grant type:Competitive

    Grant amount: \2470000 ( Direct Cost: \1900000 、 Indirect Cost: \570000 )

    The purpose of this research is to find a mechanism of "a landslide election victory" through social-psychological experiments. Experimental results show that most voters tend to change their preferences and to follow the majority, when they recognize the risk of becoming a minority. The experiments also show that voters become fixated for winning elections by repeating elections. These results suggest the modern democratic system itself can cause "a landslide election victory".

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  • 適応的な市民の政治参加メカニズム-エージェントベースドモデルの構築と検証-

    Grant number:07J53213  2007    

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業 特別研究員奨励費  特別研究員奨励費  早稲田大学

    荒井 紀一郎

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    Grant amount: \900000 ( Direct Cost: \900000 )

    目的
    本研究の目的は、市民の政治参加について動態的なモデルを構築し、そのモデルの妥当性を実証することによって、市民が政治的な活動に参加するメカニズムを明らかにすることにある。目的を達成するため、本年度は以下2点を中心に研究を実施した。
    (1)自律的な主体(市民)の相互作用がシステム全体(社会)にもたらす特性や影響をモデル化できるマルチエージェントモデリングを用いた新たな政治参加モデルの構築
    (2)有権者が持つ様々なアイデンティティ(以下ID)の変化が投票参加や投票方向にもたらす影響を明らかにするための実験の実施
    実施状況
    (1)市民が自身の行動と選挙結果をもとに学習しながら適応的に参加/不参加を決定していくモデルを構築し、シミュレーションによってモデルの振る舞いを観察した。その結果、従来の政治参加を表す数理モデルよりもより現実に近い参加率、選挙結果を予測することができた。また、有権者の若い時期での投票経験と支持政党の連勝がその後の参加に大きな影響を与えている可能性があることが示された。本研究で得られた知見をもとに昨年5月の日本選挙会及び、10月の国際シンポジウムにて報告を行った。
    (2)科学研究費補助金を用いて、インターネットによる実験世論調査を実施した。この調査は、日本の会社員1000名を対象に彼らの社会的IDと党派性を測定し、実験群と統制群に分けた上で実験群の被験者には彼らのIDに対する刺激を与え、IDが投票参加と投票方向に与える影響を明らかにしようとするものであった。調査は本年8月下旬に実施した。調査の結果、有権者は自分が属している政治集団が、自分が属している社会集団の中において少数派である場合には、政治的なIDには依らないで意志決定を行う可能性があることが示された。本研究の内容は、昨年10月に開催された実験社会科学コンファランスおよび、本年2月に行われた国際コンファランスにて報告を行った。

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Allotted class

  • 2024   Case Studies (Seminar) Ⅰ   Department

  • 2024   Case Studies (Seminar) Ⅱ   Department

  • 2024   Introduction to Political Science   Department

  • 2024   Graduation Thesis   Department

  • 2024   Introductory SeminarⅠ   Department

  • 2024   Political Science   Department

  • 2024   Special Lecture   Department

  • 2024   Special Lecture   Department

  • 2024   Special Lecture   Department

  • 2024   Modern Government   Department

  • 2024   Academic ResearchⅠ   Graduate school

  • 2024   Academic ResearchⅡ   Graduate school

  • 2024   Academic ResearchⅢ   Graduate school

  • 2024   Academic ResearchⅣ   Graduate school

  • 2024   Political Behavior   Graduate school

  • 2024   SeminarⅠ(1)   Graduate school

  • 2024   SeminarⅠ(2)   Graduate school

  • 2024   SeminarⅠ(3)   Graduate school

  • 2024   SeminarⅠ(4)   Graduate school

  • 2024   SeminarⅡ   Graduate school

  • 2024   Political Psychology Ⅰ   Graduate school

  • 2024   Political Psychology Ⅱ   Graduate school

  • 2024   Forum on Policy Studies   Graduate school

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Teaching Experience

  • 国際政治経済研究(政治心理学)

  • 調査研究デザイン

  • 基礎演習Ⅱ

    Institution:中央大学

  • 総合基礎演習αβ

    Institution:早稲田大学

  • 政治学英語文献研究(基礎)AB

    Institution:早稲田大学

  • 調査・実験実習

  • 実験からわかる社会行動のメカニズム

  • 政治行動論

  • 法律学政治学演習

  • 政治学

  • 基礎ゼミナール

  • 政治過程論

  • 政治システム論B

  • 政治システム論A

  • 政策決定分析

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Committee Memberships

  • 2018 - Now

    日本行動計量学会   編集委員  

  • 2018.10 - 2019.10

    日本政治学会   企画委員  

  • 2016 - 2018

    ICPSR国内利用協議会   副会長  

  • 2014.10 - 2015.10

    日本政治学会   2015年度企画委員会  

  • 2011.5 - 2015.3

    日本選挙学会   事務局幹事  

  • 2012.10 - 2014.6

    日本政治学会   年報2014年第I号 編集委員会  

  • 2013.5 - 2014.5

    日本選挙学会   2014年度 企画委員会  

  • 2012.9 - 2013.12

    日本選挙学会   年報第29号編集委員会  

  • 2010.5 - 2011.5

    日本選挙学会   企画委員会  

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